IMAGES FROM IRAQ CAUSE CONSTERNATION IN ARAB WORLD

Bitterness, consternation, amazement, and paranoia are among the emotions apparently felt by millions of Arabs watching television images from the U.S.-led liberation of Iraq, especially in contrast to the spin being given by the official media. Arabs are being told that the U.S. forces are brutal occupiers, no better than the Israelis, but then why are the people of Baghdad cheering the American soliders?

"From the Atlantic to the Arabian Gulf, television images of crowds rejoicing at cheering US Marines toppling a Saddam statue in central Baghdad, broadcast repeatedly since Wednesday afternoon, caused consternation and a sense of shame," said a news story posted to the web site of the Arab TV network al-Jazeera.

Al-Jazeera did its best to put a grim face on the happy news by focusing on the looting that followed the collapse of the Saddam regime and the humanitarian crisis that followed three weeks of bombing and combat.

But the propaganda could not hide the fact that the dictator of a one-party police state not unlike several others in the Arab world had been deposed, and probably killed, by the U.S. and British military while the Iraqi military melted away or surrendered en masse.

"This is a tragedy and a bloody comedy. We cannot believe what we see. What happened? It seems that the Iraqis have given up Baghdad without a fight. Where is the Iraqi army? Have they evaporated?" said Walid Salem, a Ramallah shopkeeper.

Some Arabs speculated that Saddam himself had sold out to the Americans in exchange for his life.

"If a deal was struck with Saddam, then that proves that he staked his people and the hopes of all Arabs in order to survive," said a Yemeni. "He is one of the traitors we have known throughout history and he will not be the last."

Others noted the obvious parallels between Saddam's regime and the assorted authoritarian, unelected regimes that hold power in nearly all Arab lands.

Egyptian political commentator Salama Ahmed Salama told Reuters: "The gap between Arab governments and the people represents a source of anxiety for different Arab regimes. But whether they'll learn the lesson or not, I don't know."

Some commentators argued that Saddam's regime was unique.

"The Iraqi situation is exceptional, we can't compare it with Iran or Egypt . . . or a country like Saudi Arabia. This is . . . a regime outside history," Saudi commentator Jamal Khashoggi said.

The state-controlled media in countries such as Egypt harrumphed that the war will "provide a favorable environment for the cultivation of violence and terrorism," but ordinary people can see for themselves that the selfish men who rule them are not, in fact, immortal.

ANALYSTS TAKE COVER FROM SHOCK OF U.S. VICTORY

That loud grinding noise you hear is the sound of analysts and commentators frantically shifting gears to get on the right side of history in Iraq. War skeptics who have been proven wrong are trying to cover up their mistakes, usually with even more predictions.

Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution in Washington, for example, said last October that a U.S. strategy of selective bombing would probably not win over the Iraqi peopole.

"I think anyone who wants to count on that is making a big mistake," he said. "The idea that suddenly Arabs will see Westerners as liberators as opposed to occupiers is a hope at best."

A hope that has come true in Baghdad and other cities, where newly freed citizen are blowing kisses to our soldiers.

O'Hanlon also rejected the concept of the "rolling start," by which the war would be launched with the troops on hand with others to come as reinforcements. It isn't clear if this was actually the U.S. strategy or just Pentagon chatter, but O'Hanlon didn't like it.

"I think the problem with this is that a few tens of thousands of American forces probably cannot take Baghdad, probably cannot by themselves defeat the Republican Guard and probably won't intimidate the Iraqi conscript army into quickly capitulating or turning against Saddam," he told Canadian Broadcasting in January. "So I think you give away a lot of your potential political benefits by going in with a small force."

Ahem. No wonder at least one of his articles has been pulled out of the Brookings Institution web site.

O'Hanlon is now grudgingly complimenting General Franks and his planners on a "fine job" while casting doubt on Vice President's Cheney's description of their battle plan as "brilliant." O'Hanlon notes that none of the individual elements of the plan -- "shock and awe," special operations raids, the race to Baghdad, precision bombing -- is particularly new. (See his article here.) That's true as far as it goes, but what is stunningly new is the way all these elements were brought together and the astonishing degree to which air power was used for tactical purposes.

Whatever the critics want to make of it now, the U.S. victory in Iraq is stunning and is probably causing some second thoughts in Pyongyang, among other places. It's said that Kim Jong-Il likes to watch western TV. Let's hope he has been tuned in.

ARAB LEADER POOH-POOHS CHANCE OF DEMOCRACY IN IRAQ

Amr Moussa, secretary general of the League of Arab States, said on CNN today he is "pessimistic" that democracy can take root in Iraq.

That may be because Mr. Moussa represents a group of 20-some countries that know little about democracy. The Arab League's members include Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Sudan, Djibouti, Somalia, Comoros, Lebanon, Palestine, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Oman and Yemen.

Not a single one is a functioning democracy. Most are kingdoms, oil-rich principalities, or one-party police states. They wouldn't know democracy if it fell on them.

The only functioning democracy in the Middle East is Israel. (Turkey is a democracy, also, but is not usually counted as "Middle East.")

The idea that Iraq could be a democratic demonstration project for the Arab world is probably far-fetched, but the mere prospect gives the neighboring regimes the willies anyway. Look for them to try desperately to undermine the attempt to transition Iraq to democratic rule.

Saudi Arabia won't be too happy about the development of Iraq's oil potential, either, since more oil means lower prices, and the vast Saudi ruling family is said to be running out of money.

Rocky soil for the seeds of democracy and freedom.

FREEDOM OF SPEECH ERUPTS IN BAGHDAD

Freedom of speech broke out in Baghdad today as Iraqis cheered the U.S. soliders and Marines who rolled their tanks into the center of the city to liberate its people from the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. Men scaled a staute of the dictator in a city square to beat it with shoes, a big insult in the Arab world. Americans were indeed greeted as liberators, just as top U.S. officials predicted. War skeptics are in full retreat, clinging to the obivous humanitarian problems in the city as the last vestige of their position.

In the meantime, Iraqi citizens are reportedly jeering the westerners who stayed in the city as "human shields" but had little to do since the Coalition did not target the power plants and other facilities where they were stationed.

Today is the greatest day for freedom in the world since the Berlin Wall came down. And once again, it is being marked by ordinary people hitting the symbols of tyranny with sledgehammers. Long live freedom!

IRAQI SPOKESMAN DEALS IN FANTASY

The undisputed title of Worst PR Man in the World goes to Iraq's Minister of Information, Mohammed Saeed al-Sahhaf, who denied that American troops were in the city as the whole world watched U.S. soldiers poking through the ruins of Saddam's main palace. U.S. troops on Sunday made a "thunder run" thorugh the city to assess resistance and returned Monday, apparently to stay.

"They are sick in their minds," al-Sahhaf said of American forces and media. "They say they brought 65 tanks into center of city. I say to you this talk is not true," al-Sahhaf said. "There is no presence of American infidels in the city of Baghdad, at all."

One of these infidel-manned tanks -- named "Courtesy of the Red White and Blue" after Toby's Keith fighting song -- blew an equestrian statue of Saddam off its pedestal on the main parade ground in Baghdad. Other infidels shot videotape of the gold-plated fixtures in Saddam's palace. Not bad for guys who weren't there.

Iraq's propaganda plan early in the war was to try to maintain the regime's credibility by being reasonably accurate about casualty figures and the like. As U.S. troops closed in on Baghdad, however, sheer desperation seems to have taken over. The hapless al-Sahhaf seems to be the only top government official willing -- or able -- to meet the press. With no actual good news to report, has resorted to utter fantasy. No doubt some people in the viewing world will believe him, but the fantasy can't last too much longer, and Minister al-Sahhaf is doing little more than punching himself a ticket to Guantanamo Bay. Get out of town, Mohammed, the red white and blue is looking for you.