WILL U.S. LOSE ITS INVESTMENT IN GENERAL MOTORS?

A few months ago, I wrote in a letter to the Washington Post that General Motors would never be able to repay its bailout loans from the federal government and could end up as a heavily subsidized "Amtrak of the highways." A commenter said no, the taxpayers would get their money back by selling the stock the government received in exchange for its stake. A nice thought.

Unfortunately, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) ran the numbers, and it doesn't look good for Uncle Sam as a stock picker. Before the federal stake will equal its investment, the company will have to be worth $69 billion, according to GAO. Unfortunately, GM was worth only $56 billion back in the glory days in 2000 and a measly $7 billion in 2008. As GAO puts it in its report on GM and Chrysler: "Currently, the value of the companies would have to grow tremendously for Treasury to approach breaking even on its investment, requiring that Treasury temper any desire to exit as quickly as possible with the need to maintain its ownership interest long enough for the companies to demonstrate sufficient financial progress."

Fat chance of that. Good luck, Uncle Sucker.