OBAMA ON NORTH KOREAN LAUNCH: I'LL HUFF AND I'LL PUFF . . .
North Korea conducted a ballistic missile test over the weekend, with results that were probably satisfactory to the regime if not all that it hoped for. The three-stage rocket reached well into the Pacific, although not as far as North Korea had said when it issued the usual warning to any mariners who might be in the impact zone. Whether the third stage was packed with its solid fuel, and what was actually in the payload, are among the things not known.
The payload might actually have been a small communications satellite. It could also have been a concrete block the same weight as the nuclear warhead the north hopes to loft one day.
It is almost certain, however, is that this was not primarily an attempt to place a communications satellite in low-earth orbit -- a virtually useless accomplishment anyway. The north's claim that it was, and further claim that the satellite actually got into orbit and began broadcasting patriotic songs, is merely an entertaining cover story. No one could object to placing a satellite in orbit. A ballistic missile test, however, would be against the express wishes of the United Nations. Hence the cover story. A regime that lies about everything had no problem lying about the purpose of its launch.
So it is rather surprising that so many outlets in the Western media took the satellite claim seriously and proclaimed the shot a failure because the vehicle went down in the ocean. The New York Times smugly assured its readers: "North Korea failed in its highly vaunted effort to fire a satellite into orbit, military and private experts said Sunday after reviewing detailed tracking data that showed the missile and payload fell into the sea."
The "military experts" cited consisted of a terse statement from the U.S. military's Northern Command which provided the barest statement of the facts and did not go into the intent of the launch. The civilians were the usual sort of intellectuals rather noticeably lacking in real-world experience that tend to be favored as sources by The New York Times.
The missile might have malfunctioned and crashed, or it might simply have run out of fuel. Either way, it established a new distance record for North Korean missiles. When the north's technicians get the third stage working, they will have a true ICBM -- intercontinental ballistic missile -- capable of reaching the United States.
And that is what the north and its unpredictable ruler, Kim Jong Il, really want -- the ability to threaten the U.S., world superpower and protector of South Korea. The north wants the chance to say, in some future crisis, back off, Uncle Sam, or Los Angeles is toast.
The north has a long way to go. The missile has to be perfected. Most of all, a nuclear bomb small enough to fit into the missile's payload area has to be developed. That could take years. But the path followed by the north is clear enough, and it hasn't backtracked one bit since it first fired a Taepondong missile in 1998. There is really nothing to prevent it from developing a working system over time.
Nothing, that is, except punishment for its misbehavior. “Rules must be binding,” President Obama said. “Violations must be punished. Words must mean something.”
Okay . . . and what is Mr. Obama going to do about it? Why, he is going to demand that the United States ratify a nuclear test ban treaty! That will show the North Koreans. Then, when they test their nuclear warhead, they will claim it just a really big fireworks display for King Jong Il's birthday. They may even broadcast some patriotic tunes.
